Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia escalates its offensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, deploying more heavy weaponry and targeting civilian infrastructure. This could include increased airstrikes on key urban centers, potentially leading to a wider escalation of the conflict with NATO involvement. * Confirmation Indicators: Significant increase in Russian military activity near Ukrainian borders within 72 hours, including air defense deployments and reports of increased troop movements. A formal declaration of war by Russia or an attack on a NATO country's territory within 14 days. * Time Horizon: 1-3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The incident in Zaporizhzhia Oblast remains isolated, with both sides maintaining a cautious approach to escalate the conflict further. However, tensions may continue to rise as both Russia (88% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia escalates its offensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, deploying more heavy weaponry and targeting civilian infrastructure. This could include increased airstrikes on key urban centers, potentially leading to a wider escalation of the conflict with NATO involvement. * Confirmation Indicators: Significant increase in Russian military activity near Ukrainian borders within 72 hours, including air defense deployments and reports of increased troop movements. A formal declaration of war by Russia or an attack on a NATO country's territory within 14 days. * Time Horizon: 1-3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The incident in Zaporizhzhia Oblast remains isolated, with both sides maintaining a cautious approach to escalate the conflict further. However, tensions may continue to rise as both Russia (8% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia escalates its offensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, deploying more heavy weaponry and targeting civilian infrastructure. This could include increased airstrikes on key urban centers, potentially leading to a wider escalation of the conflict with NATO involvement. * Confirmation Indicators: Significant increase in Russian military activity near Ukrainian borders within 72 hours, including air defense deployments and reports of increased troop movements. A formal declaration of war by Russia or an attack on a NATO country's territory within 14 days. * Time Horizon: 1-3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The incident in Zaporizhzhia Oblast remains isolated, with both sides maintaining a cautious approach to escalate the conflict further. However, tensions may continue to rise as both Russia (4% model probability, not a guarantee)

Russians strike near bus stop in Zaporizhzhia Oblast with guided bombs: three killed – photo, video

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators