S6/10Geopolitical
Invasion de l ? Ukraine - Des bombardements russes font au moins 18 morts à Kiev et dans sa région
⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 40% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days