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S8/10Geopolitical
A war-fatigued and anxious Russia picks a new parliament
Fuel shortages, drone strikes and mobilization rumors are fueling anxiety and war fatigue in Russia. As support for peace talks grows among Russians, the Kremlin is watching closely ahead of parliamentary elections.
Source: DW WorldOriginal source
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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