S8/10Geopolitical
Dry, wet, dry again: India’s ‘mysterious’ monsoon swings threaten crops, power supply
An intensifying El Nino and global warming are driving a shift in India’s monsoon rainfall, creating more erratic weather patterns that threaten to dent agricultural output and strain power grids. This year’s monsoon opened with India’s fifth-driest June on record and rainfall almost 40 per cent below normal levels, followed by a sudden deluge early this month – when about a month’s worth of precipitation was dumped on cities like Mumbai in a single week. Since then, the weather system has...
Click a tag to subscribe via email/Telegram (manage channels in Account).
⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 60% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days