S8/10Geopolitical
Iran is using the war with Israel as cover for increased executions, according to rights groups
Iran already had one of the highest rates of capital punishment in the world. Now, rights groups say, the country is using the current conflict to carry out even more executions, in an attempt to repress dissent.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 67% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased diplomatic tensions between Israel and Iran escalate into direct military engagements.
- ◆Reports of Iranian
- ◆backed militias engaging in violence in the region, potentially involving proxy groups like Hezbollah or Hamas.
- ◆Increased rhetoric from Iranian leadership regarding their "fight against enemies" and calls for increased military activity.
Horizon: 10–30 days
B
Status quo— 24% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased diplomatic tensions between Israel and Iran escalate into direct military engagements.
- ◆Reports of Iranian
- ◆backed militias engaging in violence in the region, potentially involving proxy groups like Hezbollah or Hamas.
- ◆Increased rhetoric from Iranian leadership regarding their "fight against enemies" and calls for increased military activity.
Horizon: 10–30 days
C
De-escalation— 9% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased diplomatic tensions between Israel and Iran escalate into direct military engagements.
- ◆Reports of Iranian
- ◆backed militias engaging in violence in the region, potentially involving proxy groups like Hezbollah or Hamas.
- ◆Increased rhetoric from Iranian leadership regarding their "fight against enemies" and calls for increased military activity.
Horizon: 10–30 days