S9/10Military
US-Iran conflict enters prolonged struggle over Strait of Hormuz
Nearly two weeks of US strikes and escalating threats against Iranian infrastructure have transformed the US-Iran confrontation from a series of retaliatory exchanges into a broader campaign of pressure, raising the prospect of a prolonged conflict marked by military escalation, diplomatic maneuvering and economic strain.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Horizon: 7–30 days
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