Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: US-Iran tensions escalate, leading to increased oil prices due to potential sanctions or embargoes. This triggers inflationary pressures in the US economy, potentially impacting consumer confidence and investment decisions. The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates further to combat inflation, potentially slowing economic growth. * Increased rhetoric from US officials regarding Iran. * Diplomatic channels between US and Iran cease communication. * Oil prices surge by more than 10% in the following week. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The US inflation rate remains relatively stable, with inflationary pressures from rising petrol prices being offset by other factors like supply chain improvements and wage growth. The Federal Reserve maintains its current monetary po (29% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: US-Iran tensions escalate, leading to increased oil prices due to potential sanctions or embargoes. This triggers inflationary pressures in the US economy, potentially impacting consumer confidence and investment decisions. The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates further to combat inflation, potentially slowing economic growth. * Increased rhetoric from US officials regarding Iran. * Diplomatic channels between US and Iran cease communication. * Oil prices surge by more than 10% in the following week. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The US inflation rate remains relatively stable, with inflationary pressures from rising petrol prices being offset by other factors like supply chain improvements and wage growth. The Federal Reserve maintains its current monetary po (52% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: US-Iran tensions escalate, leading to increased oil prices due to potential sanctions or embargoes. This triggers inflationary pressures in the US economy, potentially impacting consumer confidence and investment decisions. The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates further to combat inflation, potentially slowing economic growth. * Increased rhetoric from US officials regarding Iran. * Diplomatic channels between US and Iran cease communication. * Oil prices surge by more than 10% in the following week. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The US inflation rate remains relatively stable, with inflationary pressures from rising petrol prices being offset by other factors like supply chain improvements and wage growth. The Federal Reserve maintains its current monetary po (19% model probability, not a guarantee)