S9/10Geopolitical

Iran speaker warns talks could collapse over Israeli attacks

Iran speaker warns talks could collapse over Israeli attacks Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has warned that Tehran could abandon negotiations and move towards direct confrontation after Israel’s continued attacks on southern Lebanon and Beirut. Ghalibaf said Iran “will not only halt the path of negotiations, but we will also be in direct confrontation with the enemy” if the escalation continues. He accused the US and Israel of sabotaging diplomacy, saying “they are neither committed to a ceasefire nor believe in dialogue and by demonstrating through the naval blockade and violation of agreements regarding Lebanon that they only understand the language of power”. In a post on X, Ghalibaf, who also serves as Iran’s main negotiator in talks with the US, said “the naval blockade against the Iranian nation and America’s green light today to the Zionist regime turn American and regime bases and assets in the region into legitimate targets”.

07 Jun 2026, 16:42 UTCSource: Middle East EyeOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation77% model probability

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased rhetoric from Iran and Hezbollah regarding a potential attack.
  • Israel's retaliation with targeted attacks on Iranian infrastructure.
  • Reports of increased military activity in the region, including drone sightings near Israel or Lebanon.
Horizon: 10–20 days
B
Status quo17% model probability

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased rhetoric from Iran and Hezbollah regarding a potential attack.
  • Israel's retaliation with targeted attacks on Iranian infrastructure.
  • Reports of increased military activity in the region, including drone sightings near Israel or Lebanon.
Horizon: 10–20 days
C
De-escalation6% model probability

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased rhetoric from Iran and Hezbollah regarding a potential attack.
  • Israel's retaliation with targeted attacks on Iranian infrastructure.
  • Reports of increased military activity in the region, including drone sightings near Israel or Lebanon.
Horizon: 10–20 days