S9/10Geopolitical
Iran claims US strike hit near nuclear powerplant
The United States and Iran are continuing to trade strikes on July 9 for a second straight day. after President Donald Trump said the ceasefire between the two countries was "dead". According to Iran's health ministry, the two days of US attacks have killed at least 14 people and injured more than 70. In response, Tehran said it had resumed its targeting of US assets in Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 73% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days