Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Bolivian president uses military to clear roadblocks, triggering increased violence from protesters and potential retaliatory actions by government forces. This escalates into a larger armed conflict with regional instability as neighboring countries intervene to protect their interests or provide support to the protestors. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: Bolivian government maintains a cautious approach to the protests, utilizing non-lethal force to disperse protestors and negotiate with opposition leaders. The situation remains tense but stable, with sporadic demonstrations and continued pressure for political re (81% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Bolivian president uses military to clear roadblocks, triggering increased violence from protesters and potential retaliatory actions by government forces. This escalates into a larger armed conflict with regional instability as neighboring countries intervene to protect their interests or provide support to the protestors. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: Bolivian government maintains a cautious approach to the protests, utilizing non-lethal force to disperse protestors and negotiate with opposition leaders. The situation remains tense but stable, with sporadic demonstrations and continued pressure for political re (14% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Bolivian president uses military to clear roadblocks, triggering increased violence from protesters and potential retaliatory actions by government forces. This escalates into a larger armed conflict with regional instability as neighboring countries intervene to protect their interests or provide support to the protestors. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: Bolivian government maintains a cautious approach to the protests, utilizing non-lethal force to disperse protestors and negotiate with opposition leaders. The situation remains tense but stable, with sporadic demonstrations and continued pressure for political re (5% model probability, not a guarantee)

Bolivia’s legislature passes law allowing use of troops against protesters

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators