S6/10Geopolitical
Ukrainian forces hit Russia’s Yaroslavl oil refinery again and strike other targets
Units from Ukraine's defence forces have once again struck the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in the Russian city of Yaroslavl as well as a number of other targets.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 44% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days