S6/10Geopolitical
More than 400 drones headed toward Moscow Region from July 19 to July 20
Most of them were neutralized by air defense systems at long range, Mayor Sergey Sobyanin said
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 40% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days