S8/10Geopolitical
Trump suggests new talks with Iran to begin on Monday
Tehran has not responded to the suggestion that new talks are imminent. Trump has previously said a negotiated end to the war is close, only for strikes to resume.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
Exact probability, cascade chain, and confirmation indicators unlock for approved members.
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