S6/10Geopolitical
EU may drop entry ban on Russian combatants from 21st sanctions package
A proposed EU-wide entry ban on people who fought against Ukraine on Russia's side, included in the European Commission's draft 21st Russia sanctions package, may be replaced with non-binding recommendations because of opposition from France and Italy.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 46% model probability
Сценарии event-driven intelligence
Horizon: 7–30 days