S8/10Geopolitical
Europe's population reckoning: How can the EU avoid falling off a demographic cliff?
It has been called Europe’s demographic time bomb: Older people are living longer, while younger people are having fewer children. Last year in France, for example, deaths outpaced births for the first time since the end of World War II, prompting President Emmanuel Macron to call for "demographic rearmament".
29 May 2026, 13:27 UTCSource: France24
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 73% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆A surge in anti
- ◆immigration protests across multiple countries, followed by a public debate on potential policy shifts within the European Parliament.
- ◆Time Horizon: 120 days to 6 months.
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Status quo— 20% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆A surge in anti
- ◆immigration protests across multiple countries, followed by a public debate on potential policy shifts within the European Parliament.
- ◆Time Horizon: 120 days to 6 months.
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
De-escalation— 7% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆A surge in anti
- ◆immigration protests across multiple countries, followed by a public debate on potential policy shifts within the European Parliament.
- ◆Time Horizon: 120 days to 6 months.
Horizon: 7–30 days