S8/10Geopolitical
Hormuz Traffic Grinds to a Near Halt as Ceasefire Under Threat
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz came to a near standstill on Thursday, after the US struck Iran for a second straight day as a fragile truce between the two sides looked increasingly shaky.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 51% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days