S9/10Geopolitical
Pakistan’s mediators in Iran as US downs drones, Lebanon looks for peace
Pakistan’s interior minister was in Tehran on Sunday in a fresh bid to restart negotiations between Iran and the US, as the American military said it shot down two more Iranian drones over the Strait of Hormuz that threatened international maritime traffic. The latest action came as the Washington presses for Iran to make a deal to end the war in the Middle East, which has strained the global economy and threatened a hunger crisis in some of the world’s most vulnerable countries. The heaviest...
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 71% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆A formal declaration of war by the US or Iran, followed by escalation in missile tests and direct confrontations between armed forces.
- ◆Time Horizon: 10
Horizon: 10–30 days
B
Status quo— 21% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆A formal declaration of war by the US or Iran, followed by escalation in missile tests and direct confrontations between armed forces.
- ◆Time Horizon: 10
Horizon: 10–30 days
C
De-escalation— 8% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆A formal declaration of war by the US or Iran, followed by escalation in missile tests and direct confrontations between armed forces.
- ◆Time Horizon: 10
Horizon: 10–30 days