Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: South Korea's nuclear-powered submarine program triggers heightened tensions with its regional rivals (China and Japan), leading to increased military exercises and deployments in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea. These actions could escalate into a series of smaller confrontations, such as contested maritime patrols or even accidental incidents at sea. * Confirmation Indicators: Chinese military vessels conducting more frequent drills near South Korean waters within 30 days; Japanese government issuing statements expressing "serious concern" regarding the program and its implications for regional stability. * Time Horizon: 60-90 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Baseline Scenario: South Korea's submarine program is met with cautious diplomatic response from China and Japan, who express concern (72% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: South Korea's nuclear-powered submarine program triggers heightened tensions with its regional rivals (China and Japan), leading to increased military exercises and deployments in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea. These actions could escalate into a series of smaller confrontations, such as contested maritime patrols or even accidental incidents at sea. * Confirmation Indicators: Chinese military vessels conducting more frequent drills near South Korean waters within 30 days; Japanese government issuing statements expressing "serious concern" regarding the program and its implications for regional stability. * Time Horizon: 60-90 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Baseline Scenario: South Korea's submarine program is met with cautious diplomatic response from China and Japan, who express concern (20% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: South Korea's nuclear-powered submarine program triggers heightened tensions with its regional rivals (China and Japan), leading to increased military exercises and deployments in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea. These actions could escalate into a series of smaller confrontations, such as contested maritime patrols or even accidental incidents at sea. * Confirmation Indicators: Chinese military vessels conducting more frequent drills near South Korean waters within 30 days; Japanese government issuing statements expressing "serious concern" regarding the program and its implications for regional stability. * Time Horizon: 60-90 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Baseline Scenario: South Korea's submarine program is met with cautious diplomatic response from China and Japan, who express concern (7% model probability, not a guarantee)

South Korea pushes nuclear-powered submarine plan

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators