S8/10Geopolitical
Middle East live: US strikes Iran for third night as Trump says deal still 'possible'
The United States launched a fresh salvo of strikes against Iran early Tuesday, marking a new escalation in the resumption of hostilities, even as US President Donald Trump said a deal with Tehran was still possible. Follow our liveblog for the latest updates.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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