Axelrod's Oracle
S8/10Geopolitical

Israel’s Netanyahu orders army to seize 70 percent of Gaza

Israel’s Netanyahu orders army to seize 70 percent of Gaza Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday that he had ordered the army to occupy 70 percent of the Gaza Strip, in the latest violation of the October ceasefire. “At this point, we are fully in control of 60 percent of the territory of the Gaza Strip,” Netanyahu said during a conference hosted by the pre-military Ein Prat leadership academy. “My directive is to get to… 70 percent,” he added. When audience members shouted in support of full Israeli control over Gaza, Netanyahu replied: “We’re going in order. First 70 percent… we’ll start with that.” His comments came a day after Defence Minister Israel Katz reiterated Israel’s intention to advance a plan for the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from Gaza through what he described as a “voluntary emigration” scheme. Read more: Israel’s Netanyahu orders army to seize 70 percent of Gaza An Israeli army tank moves along the fence between Israel and the Gaza Strip on 21 October 2025 (AFP/Jack Guez)

29 May 2026, 10:27 UTCSource: Middle East Eye

Click a tag to subscribe via email/Telegram (manage channels in Account).

⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 67% model probability

Confirmation indicators

  • ◆Reports of Israeli military deployments within Gaza, escalating airstrikes targeting specific locations, and statements from high
  • ◆ranking officials indicating a shift towards full
  • ◆scale offensive operations.
  • ◆Time Horizon: Within 7 days to two weeks, escalating into a prolonged conflict with potential for wider regional involvement.
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Status quo— 24% model probability

Confirmation indicators

  • ◆Reports of Israeli military deployments within Gaza, escalating airstrikes targeting specific locations, and statements from high
  • ◆ranking officials indicating a shift towards full
  • ◆scale offensive operations.
  • ◆Time Horizon: Within 7 days to two weeks, escalating into a prolonged conflict with potential for wider regional involvement.
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
De-escalation— 9% model probability

Confirmation indicators

  • ◆Reports of Israeli military deployments within Gaza, escalating airstrikes targeting specific locations, and statements from high
  • ◆ranking officials indicating a shift towards full
  • ◆scale offensive operations.
  • ◆Time Horizon: Within 7 days to two weeks, escalating into a prolonged conflict with potential for wider regional involvement.
Horizon: 7–30 days