S6/10Geopolitical
Strait of Hormuz to open only on Iran’s terms, but under US’ threats — parliament speaker
According to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, threats and breaking promises "are no longer cost-free"
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 34% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days