S6/10Geopolitical
Israel kills five in Gaza despite Trump’s Hamas disarmament plan
Strikes hit Gaza homes after the US unveiled plan for Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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