S6/10Geopolitical
Rwanda-Backed Rebels Enter Congo's Safe-Haven City
Residents of Goma reported gunfire and shelling after rebels overran Congolese troops. U.N. officials estimated that more than one million displaced people were now inside the city.
⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 47% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days