S9/10Geopolitical

Closer to war or to peace? US, Iran near deal on 60-day ceasefire

The ​United States threatened Thursday to target ally Oman if it helped impose a tolling system in the key Strait of Hormuz, warning of sanctions against all parties involved in such actions. The United States and Iran also accused each other of violating an ongoing truce following an exchange of fire, three months after the Middle East war began with a wave of US-Israeli strikes on the Islamic republic. The latest exchange was the most serious since Washington and Tehran agreed to a ceasefire in April. The two countries have been locked in weeks-long indirect talks through mediators to bring the conflict to an end, so far to no avail. For more, FRANCE 24’s François Picard is joined by Dr. H. A. Hellyer, senior fellow in Geopolitics, International Security, and Middle East Studies at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies in London.

29 May 2026, 11:35 UTCSource: France24

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation77% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • US public statements targeting Oman for its alleged role in the "tolling" system and subsequent Iranian military response involving ballistic missiles or drone attacks.
  • Time horizon: 1
Horizon: 7–21 days
B
Status quo17% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • US public statements targeting Oman for its alleged role in the "tolling" system and subsequent Iranian military response involving ballistic missiles or drone attacks.
  • Time horizon: 1
Horizon: 7–21 days
C
De-escalation6% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • US public statements targeting Oman for its alleged role in the "tolling" system and subsequent Iranian military response involving ballistic missiles or drone attacks.
  • Time horizon: 1
Horizon: 7–21 days