Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: EAEU-Serbia free trade agreement updates lead to increased political tensions between member states and Serbia. Tensions escalate into a public dispute, with calls for sanctions against Serbian businesses. This is followed by a potential escalation of the conflict, leading to diplomatic pressure from other countries on the EAEU. * Confirmation indicators: Increased media coverage of political disputes between EAEU members and Serbia. A statement from a prominent member state explicitly calling for sanctions against Serbian businesses. * Time horizon: 1-3 months Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The updated provisions are implemented smoothly, with minimal impact on trade relations between the EAEU and Serbia. Businesses adapt to the new regulations, leading to increased cooperation in areas (23% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: EAEU-Serbia free trade agreement updates lead to increased political tensions between member states and Serbia. Tensions escalate into a public dispute, with calls for sanctions against Serbian businesses. This is followed by a potential escalation of the conflict, leading to diplomatic pressure from other countries on the EAEU. * Confirmation indicators: Increased media coverage of political disputes between EAEU members and Serbia. A statement from a prominent member state explicitly calling for sanctions against Serbian businesses. * Time horizon: 1-3 months Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The updated provisions are implemented smoothly, with minimal impact on trade relations between the EAEU and Serbia. Businesses adapt to the new regulations, leading to increased cooperation in areas (56% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: EAEU-Serbia free trade agreement updates lead to increased political tensions between member states and Serbia. Tensions escalate into a public dispute, with calls for sanctions against Serbian businesses. This is followed by a potential escalation of the conflict, leading to diplomatic pressure from other countries on the EAEU. * Confirmation indicators: Increased media coverage of political disputes between EAEU members and Serbia. A statement from a prominent member state explicitly calling for sanctions against Serbian businesses. * Time horizon: 1-3 months Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The updated provisions are implemented smoothly, with minimal impact on trade relations between the EAEU and Serbia. Businesses adapt to the new regulations, leading to increased cooperation in areas (21% model probability, not a guarantee)