Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Embraer's CEO Arijan Meijer's statement at IATA could trigger heightened tensions between airlines and governments. This escalation could manifest in a series of actions: * [Day 1-7]: Increased diplomatic pressure from the EU or US on other countries to adopt similar exclusionary measures for aviation. * [Day 7-21]: Potential retaliatory tariffs imposed by some nations, potentially escalating into trade disputes with Brazil and other major players in the aviation industry. * [Day 21+]: A rise in global uncertainty regarding future international travel and potential economic slowdown in key markets. (26% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Embraer's CEO Arijan Meijer's statement at IATA could trigger heightened tensions between airlines and governments. This escalation could manifest in a series of actions: * [Day 1-7]: Increased diplomatic pressure from the EU or US on other countries to adopt similar exclusionary measures for aviation. * [Day 7-21]: Potential retaliatory tariffs imposed by some nations, potentially escalating into trade disputes with Brazil and other major players in the aviation industry. * [Day 21+]: A rise in global uncertainty regarding future international travel and potential economic slowdown in key markets. (54% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Embraer's CEO Arijan Meijer's statement at IATA could trigger heightened tensions between airlines and governments. This escalation could manifest in a series of actions: * [Day 1-7]: Increased diplomatic pressure from the EU or US on other countries to adopt similar exclusionary measures for aviation. * [Day 7-21]: Potential retaliatory tariffs imposed by some nations, potentially escalating into trade disputes with Brazil and other major players in the aviation industry. * [Day 21+]: A rise in global uncertainty regarding future international travel and potential economic slowdown in key markets. (20% model probability, not a guarantee)