Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% A potential escalation could occur if Ukraine's political and military structures fail to accept the proposed ceasefire options from Russia. This could lead to increased military pressure on Ukrainian positions, with both sides escalating their actions. This escalation would likely trigger a surge in international tensions and potentially lead to the deployment of additional military forces. * Increased rhetoric from both Ukrainian and Russian leaders regarding continued hostilities. * Reports of intensified military activity near the frontlines. * Diplomatic efforts by other countries to pressure Ukraine into accepting Russia's terms fail. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The current situation may persist, with both sides continuing to negotiate and attempt to reac (64% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% A potential escalation could occur if Ukraine's political and military structures fail to accept the proposed ceasefire options from Russia. This could lead to increased military pressure on Ukrainian positions, with both sides escalating their actions. This escalation would likely trigger a surge in international tensions and potentially lead to the deployment of additional military forces. * Increased rhetoric from both Ukrainian and Russian leaders regarding continued hostilities. * Reports of intensified military activity near the frontlines. * Diplomatic efforts by other countries to pressure Ukraine into accepting Russia's terms fail. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The current situation may persist, with both sides continuing to negotiate and attempt to reac (26% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% A potential escalation could occur if Ukraine's political and military structures fail to accept the proposed ceasefire options from Russia. This could lead to increased military pressure on Ukrainian positions, with both sides escalating their actions. This escalation would likely trigger a surge in international tensions and potentially lead to the deployment of additional military forces. * Increased rhetoric from both Ukrainian and Russian leaders regarding continued hostilities. * Reports of intensified military activity near the frontlines. * Diplomatic efforts by other countries to pressure Ukraine into accepting Russia's terms fail. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The current situation may persist, with both sides continuing to negotiate and attempt to reac (10% model probability, not a guarantee)

Zelensky's office to procrastinate in talks for fear of armed radicals — expert

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators