Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: The confirmed case count continues to rise rapidly in Ituri province, exceeding 1000 cases within two weeks. This triggers a surge in humanitarian aid efforts and a potential for international military intervention. The DRC government struggles with limited healthcare capacity and resource allocation challenges, leading to increased pressure on the UN and NGOs. * Confirmation Indicators: Rapid increase in confirmed cases beyond 1000 in Ituri province within two weeks. Reports of strained medical resources and humanitarian aid shortages from local sources. Increased international media coverage highlighting the severity of the outbreak with calls for intervention. * Time Horizon: 2-4 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The UN's response to the outbreak remains largely coordinated, but limited (46% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: The confirmed case count continues to rise rapidly in Ituri province, exceeding 1000 cases within two weeks. This triggers a surge in humanitarian aid efforts and a potential for international military intervention. The DRC government struggles with limited healthcare capacity and resource allocation challenges, leading to increased pressure on the UN and NGOs. * Confirmation Indicators: Rapid increase in confirmed cases beyond 1000 in Ituri province within two weeks. Reports of strained medical resources and humanitarian aid shortages from local sources. Increased international media coverage highlighting the severity of the outbreak with calls for intervention. * Time Horizon: 2-4 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The UN's response to the outbreak remains largely coordinated, but limited (39% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: The confirmed case count continues to rise rapidly in Ituri province, exceeding 1000 cases within two weeks. This triggers a surge in humanitarian aid efforts and a potential for international military intervention. The DRC government struggles with limited healthcare capacity and resource allocation challenges, leading to increased pressure on the UN and NGOs. * Confirmation Indicators: Rapid increase in confirmed cases beyond 1000 in Ituri province within two weeks. Reports of strained medical resources and humanitarian aid shortages from local sources. Increased international media coverage highlighting the severity of the outbreak with calls for intervention. * Time Horizon: 2-4 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The UN's response to the outbreak remains largely coordinated, but limited (15% model probability, not a guarantee)

‘Rare, untreatable strain’: Ebola toll mounts in eastern DR Congo

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators