S8/10Geopolitical
Civil unrest in Ukraine may escalate to armed protest against Zelensky, Russian MP warns
Leonid Ivlev cited the recent government reshuffle, the forced mobilization to the Ukrainian army, mass losses of untrained soldiers on the front line, and the concealment of corrupt officials by Zelensky as reasons behind potential unrest in Ukraine
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 67% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days