S6/10Social
North battlegroup liberates 50 settlements since start of year
During the first half of July, the group established control over five settlements: Ukrainskoye, Losevka, Zemlyaniy Yar, Petro-Ivanovka, Bachevsk
⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 25% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days