S8/10Geopolitical
US strikes Iranian civilian infrastructure, Tehran retaliates with attacks on US facilities in Gulf
In a primetime address to the nation, Trump said the US was 'winning big in Iran' and the American public would see 'the fruits of that labour'. However, a deal seems far out of reach as fighting in the region continues to escalate.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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