S9/10Geopolitical
At least seven killed in fresh Russian strikes on Ukraine as NATO leaders meet in Turkey
Russia has hit the Ukrainian capital with several large deadly attacks over the last week, killing more than 50 this month in a spate of ballistic missile and drone strikes.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 80% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days