S9/10Geopolitical
US, Iran Agree to Truce Renewal Pending Trump Signoff
The US and Iran have reached a tentative deal to extend a ceasefire by 60 days and launch further talks on Tehran’s nuclear program, a person with knowledge of the matter said, raising hopes the three-month conflict could be nearing a resolution. Bloomberg's Laura Davison breaks down what we know. (Source: Bloomberg)
28 May 2026, 23:38 UTCSource: Bloomberg Markets
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 65% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased rhetoric from US officials regarding Iran's nuclear program, followed by a series of targeted airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure (e.g., military bases).
- ◆Time horizon: 60 days following the initial agreement
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Status quo— 25% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased rhetoric from US officials regarding Iran's nuclear program, followed by a series of targeted airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure (e.g., military bases).
- ◆Time horizon: 60 days following the initial agreement
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
De-escalation— 9% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased rhetoric from US officials regarding Iran's nuclear program, followed by a series of targeted airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure (e.g., military bases).
- ◆Time horizon: 60 days following the initial agreement
Horizon: 7–30 days