Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Kazakhstan's energy minister announces that Astana is open to exploring additional oil export routes beyond existing agreements with China and India, potentially increasing competition in the market. This could lead to increased pressure on CPC capacity utilization rates and a potential for price fluctuations in the global crude oil market within 10 days. Confirmation indicators include: (1) Increased media coverage of Kazakhstan's exploration efforts for alternative export routes; (2) A surge in inquiries from international buyers regarding new supply agreements with Kazakhstan. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Kazakhstan maintains its current strategy of maximizing CPC capacity utilization and exploring potential partnerships to increase oil exports, without significantly altering existing agreements. This scenario continue (31% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Kazakhstan's energy minister announces that Astana is open to exploring additional oil export routes beyond existing agreements with China and India, potentially increasing competition in the market. This could lead to increased pressure on CPC capacity utilization rates and a potential for price fluctuations in the global crude oil market within 10 days. Confirmation indicators include: (1) Increased media coverage of Kazakhstan's exploration efforts for alternative export routes; (2) A surge in inquiries from international buyers regarding new supply agreements with Kazakhstan. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Kazakhstan maintains its current strategy of maximizing CPC capacity utilization and exploring potential partnerships to increase oil exports, without significantly altering existing agreements. This scenario continue (50% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Kazakhstan's energy minister announces that Astana is open to exploring additional oil export routes beyond existing agreements with China and India, potentially increasing competition in the market. This could lead to increased pressure on CPC capacity utilization rates and a potential for price fluctuations in the global crude oil market within 10 days. Confirmation indicators include: (1) Increased media coverage of Kazakhstan's exploration efforts for alternative export routes; (2) A surge in inquiries from international buyers regarding new supply agreements with Kazakhstan. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Kazakhstan maintains its current strategy of maximizing CPC capacity utilization and exploring potential partnerships to increase oil exports, without significantly altering existing agreements. This scenario continue (19% model probability, not a guarantee)