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Poland discusses scenario of Russian provocation using drones disguised as Ukrainian
The Polish government's Committee on National Security has considered a possible Russian false flag operation in which Russia could use drones bearing Ukrainian markings.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 32% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days