S6/10Geopolitical
Iran halts Strait of Hormuz shipping, Israel ready to resume war
Iran claims that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to zero, and restrictions on vessel transit will remain in place until conditions change, according to an informed source in the Islamic US Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy on Sunday.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 41% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days