Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: G7 ambassadors' continued work in Ukraine triggers increased pressure on Russia from international allies. Russia responds with heightened military activity near Kyiv and escalation of rhetoric, including threats of a wider conflict or cyberattacks against Western infrastructure. This leads to a spike in geopolitical risk premiums and volatility in global markets. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: Continued diplomatic efforts between Ukraine and Russia, alongside international pressure from the G7, result in a temporary ceasefire agreement. However, tensions remain high, with both (77% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: G7 ambassadors' continued work in Ukraine triggers increased pressure on Russia from international allies. Russia responds with heightened military activity near Kyiv and escalation of rhetoric, including threats of a wider conflict or cyberattacks against Western infrastructure. This leads to a spike in geopolitical risk premiums and volatility in global markets. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: Continued diplomatic efforts between Ukraine and Russia, alongside international pressure from the G7, result in a temporary ceasefire agreement. However, tensions remain high, with both (17% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: G7 ambassadors' continued work in Ukraine triggers increased pressure on Russia from international allies. Russia responds with heightened military activity near Kyiv and escalation of rhetoric, including threats of a wider conflict or cyberattacks against Western infrastructure. This leads to a spike in geopolitical risk premiums and volatility in global markets. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: Continued diplomatic efforts between Ukraine and Russia, alongside international pressure from the G7, result in a temporary ceasefire agreement. However, tensions remain high, with both (6% model probability, not a guarantee)

G7 ambassadors confirm they continue working in Ukraine

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators