Axelrod's Oracle
S8/10Geopolitical

“Make Iran Ungovernable” – Tracking Efforts To Destroy Iran’s Police Infrastructure

Bellingcat has identified at least 80 police stations or infrastructure related to law enforcement agencies and the Basij paramilitary group that has been damaged or destroyed in the first three weeks of the United States and Israel’s war against Iran. Experts told Bellingcat that both countries aim to degrade the Iranian regime’s “repressive capacity”. Combined, […] The post “Make Iran Ungovernable” – Tracking Efforts To Destroy Iran’s Police Infrastructure appeared first on bellingcat .

24 Apr 2026, 14:16 UTCSource: Bellingcat

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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 76% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • ◆Increased public statements from US/Israel officials directly threatening military action against Iranian infrastructure.
  • ◆Satellite imagery revealing increased activity in strategic locations related to police, government, and security agencies.
  • ◆Reports of heightened tensions between Iran and the US/Israel with potential for direct confrontation.
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Status quo— 18% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • ◆Increased public statements from US/Israel officials directly threatening military action against Iranian infrastructure.
  • ◆Satellite imagery revealing increased activity in strategic locations related to police, government, and security agencies.
  • ◆Reports of heightened tensions between Iran and the US/Israel with potential for direct confrontation.
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
De-escalation— 7% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • ◆Increased public statements from US/Israel officials directly threatening military action against Iranian infrastructure.
  • ◆Satellite imagery revealing increased activity in strategic locations related to police, government, and security agencies.
  • ◆Reports of heightened tensions between Iran and the US/Israel with potential for direct confrontation.
Horizon: 7–30 days