Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia launches a large-scale offensive against Ukraine's critical infrastructure (energy, communication networks) with heavy artillery and missile strikes. This triggers retaliatory actions from NATO members, leading to increased military activity near the Ukrainian border. * Confirmation Indicators: Increased troop movements within Russia's western military districts, confirmed reports of high-precision missile launches targeting strategic Ukrainian sites, and a surge in international sanctions against Russian military assets and individuals. * Time Horizon: Escalation could begin within 7 to 14 days, leading to escalating tensions and potential for a full-scale war within the next 2 weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Baseline: Russia maintains its current military posture in Ukraine with limi (74% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia launches a large-scale offensive against Ukraine's critical infrastructure (energy, communication networks) with heavy artillery and missile strikes. This triggers retaliatory actions from NATO members, leading to increased military activity near the Ukrainian border. * Confirmation Indicators: Increased troop movements within Russia's western military districts, confirmed reports of high-precision missile launches targeting strategic Ukrainian sites, and a surge in international sanctions against Russian military assets and individuals. * Time Horizon: Escalation could begin within 7 to 14 days, leading to escalating tensions and potential for a full-scale war within the next 2 weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Baseline: Russia maintains its current military posture in Ukraine with limi (19% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia launches a large-scale offensive against Ukraine's critical infrastructure (energy, communication networks) with heavy artillery and missile strikes. This triggers retaliatory actions from NATO members, leading to increased military activity near the Ukrainian border. * Confirmation Indicators: Increased troop movements within Russia's western military districts, confirmed reports of high-precision missile launches targeting strategic Ukrainian sites, and a surge in international sanctions against Russian military assets and individuals. * Time Horizon: Escalation could begin within 7 to 14 days, leading to escalating tensions and potential for a full-scale war within the next 2 weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Baseline: Russia maintains its current military posture in Ukraine with limi (7% model probability, not a guarantee)

Zelenskyy: Russia is preparing for new large-scale attack on Ukraine

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators