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S5/10Economic
China and Philippines trade accusations after sailor injured at sea
Dispute erupts in South China Sea after incident near Second Thomas Shoal involving Chinese and Philippine vessels.
Source: Al JazeeraOriginal source
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Horizon: 7–30 days
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