S8/10Geopolitical
Middle East live: Trump says Board of Peace reaches Hamas disarmament deal
US President Donald Trump has said that his ‘Board of Peace’ has reached an agreement to disarm Palestinian group Hamas and all other armed groups in Gaza. Meanwhile, mediator Pakistan insists that negotiations between Iran and the United States are ongoing, even as Washington carried out a 'heavy wave of strikes' on its foe in retaliation for fresh attacks targeting Jordan. Follow our liveblog for all the latest updates.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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