S6/10Geopolitical
Burnham must avoid Starmer’s Trump mistake
Experience shows that voters reward leaders who stand up to the US president
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация— 38% model probability
Сценарии event-driven intelligence: Burnham must avoid Starmer’s Trump mistake
Horizon: 7–30 days