S6/10Geopolitical
欧洲领导人巴黎峰会与乌克兰结成反弹道导弹联盟 ， 盟国承诺提供战机和武器
⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 35% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days