S9/10Geopolitical
US will not win Iran war from the air, Trump’s ex-defence chief warns
Mark Esper tells FT more bombing will not change Tehran’s behaviour, as president vows to step up attacks
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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