S6/10Military
New Ukrainian-made drones appear in Africa — Russian Foreign Ministry
Department Director Anatoly Bashkin added that Ukrainian military advisers are present in Mali’s northern border areas
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 52% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days