S6/10Geopolitical
Protests over defense minister Fyodorov's dismissal spread to 16 Ukrainian cities
Demonstrations had taken place in Kiev, Chernigov, Dnepropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankovsk, Kharkov, Lutsk, Lvov, Nikolayev, Odessa, Ternopol, Sumy and Zaporozhye
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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