S8/10Geopolitical
Trump targets Spain, NATO backs Ukraine: Is the alliance still united?
While NATO members have agreed to boost defence spending, Trump's attacks on Spain and Greenland have threatened unity.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 62% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days