Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 14 days, Russia launches a series of cyberattacks against critical infrastructure in NATO member countries, including Poland and the Baltic states. 1. Increased frequency of cyberattacks on Polish government websites 2. Reports of disrupted rail services in Estonia 3. Elevated chatter among Russian disinformation networks Time horizon: 14 days from event trigger date. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The European Union holds a summit to discuss the ongoing migrant crisis, with no significant agreements reached. 1. EU leaders' statements on the need for collective action 2. Continued influx of migrants at Mediterranean coastlines 3. Limited media coverage of potential solutions Time horizon: 21 days from event trigger date. Scenario C (De-escalation) — 12% The United States and Ch (74% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 14 days, Russia launches a series of cyberattacks against critical infrastructure in NATO member countries, including Poland and the Baltic states. 1. Increased frequency of cyberattacks on Polish government websites 2. Reports of disrupted rail services in Estonia 3. Elevated chatter among Russian disinformation networks Time horizon: 14 days from event trigger date. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The European Union holds a summit to discuss the ongoing migrant crisis, with no significant agreements reached. 1. EU leaders' statements on the need for collective action 2. Continued influx of migrants at Mediterranean coastlines 3. Limited media coverage of potential solutions Time horizon: 21 days from event trigger date. Scenario C (De-escalation) — 12% The United States and Ch (19% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 14 days, Russia launches a series of cyberattacks against critical infrastructure in NATO member countries, including Poland and the Baltic states. 1. Increased frequency of cyberattacks on Polish government websites 2. Reports of disrupted rail services in Estonia 3. Elevated chatter among Russian disinformation networks Time horizon: 14 days from event trigger date. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The European Union holds a summit to discuss the ongoing migrant crisis, with no significant agreements reached. 1. EU leaders' statements on the need for collective action 2. Continued influx of migrants at Mediterranean coastlines 3. Limited media coverage of potential solutions Time horizon: 21 days from event trigger date. Scenario C (De-escalation) — 12% The United States and Ch (7% model probability, not a guarantee)

Orban calls on Hungary’s new government to remain neutral in Ukraine conflict

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators