S9/10Geopolitical
Iran threatens US interests and Israel after strike on Beirut
Iran’s chief negotiator warned on Sunday that an Israeli strike on south Beirut and the continuing US blockade of Iranian ports would trigger retaliation. Israel struck Beirut’s southern suburbs without warning on Sunday, days after a ceasefire agreement in Washington went into effect and despite a US request not to attack Lebanon’s capital. Lebanon’s state-run national news agency said two people were killed and 11 wounded in a preliminary count. Iran had warned that an attack on Beirut would...
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 80% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆An official statement from Iran's Revolutionary Guard announcing war.
- ◆Confirmation of airstrikes against Israeli targets within 72 hours.
- ◆Increased activity of Iranian naval forces near US
- ◆controlled shipping lanes.
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Status quo— 15% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆An official statement from Iran's Revolutionary Guard announcing war.
- ◆Confirmation of airstrikes against Israeli targets within 72 hours.
- ◆Increased activity of Iranian naval forces near US
- ◆controlled shipping lanes.
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
De-escalation— 5% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆An official statement from Iran's Revolutionary Guard announcing war.
- ◆Confirmation of airstrikes against Israeli targets within 72 hours.
- ◆Increased activity of Iranian naval forces near US
- ◆controlled shipping lanes.
Horizon: 7–30 days