Proving the Negative: Three Warnings from Arms Control for the Age of AI

In early 1963, a single number characterized the difference in the positions of the United States and the Soviet Union on a comprehensive nuclear test ban.

Nikita Khrushchev had proposed three on-site inspections each year. Washington was asking for seven.

Other differences remained, including inspection procedures and treaty language.

But the difference mattered: Seismology could not always distinguish an underground test from an earthquake, and inspections created both assurance and opportunities for espionage.

Neither number had been delivered by a technical expert wielding a seismograph. Each represented a political judgment about how much residual uncertainty its government should accept.

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